Market outlook: December 2021

As listings surge buyers suddenly have more choice as we approach the Christmas slowdown.

November 2021 has seen a significant rise in the number of new properties hitting the market. Over the month the number of new property listings increased by 12.1% to reach their highest monthly number of new listings in seven years.

Predictions of a cooling market is causing a sense of urgency to transact. Picture: Getty.

As the volume of stock for sale has increased there has been a reduction in search volumes and enquiry, however, weekly sales volumes continue to rise and the median number of days on site remains at historic low levels. 

The shift in the market is something we typically see at this time of year, so it is seasonal however, the slowing of property searches and enquiry volumes has been greater than what we’ve seen over recent years.

This suggests that potentially some of the heat is starting to come out of the market.

Sense of urgency as conditions cool

National property prices have risen by more than 20% over the past year however, on a monthly basis the rate of increase has slowed over recent months.

The low interest rate environment has given borrowers a greater incentive and preparedness to take on more debt which has pushed prices higher. In some ways this shift has been exacerbated by the fact that the household’s options for spending were restricted by lockdowns and border closures. A shortage of new supply has also contributed to bidding-up prices.

It’s clear that listing volumes are now playing catchup after a lockdown-driven lull, however the jump in new listings isn’t exclusive to the states that experienced lengthy lockdowns.

This would seem to suggest that the easing of COVID restrictions and high vaccination rates are leading to improved vendor confidence.

There is also some urgency to transact on property before the market cools as many are expecting over the coming year. 

Beyond the traditionally slower Christmas and New Year period we expect that new listing volumes will be strong, continuing to make-up for the low volumes during lockdowns.

We also anticipate that demand will remain strong but fall a little from the heights seen over recent times. 

How property is fairing across the country

Let’s look at housing market conditions throughout the states and territories. 

• New South Wales
• Victoria
• Queensland
• South Australia
• Western Australia
• Tasmania
• Northern Territory
• Australian Capital Territory

New South Wales

Over the past three months prices in Sydney have risen 4.8% which continues to be a deceleration in price growth, with property prices 26.6% higher over the year.

Growth in regional NSW is showing little signs of slowing, up 9.3% over the past three months and 35.7% stronger annually.

Sales volumes 

As of November, monthly preliminary sales volumes in Sydney were the highest they have been since the start of 2019. There have been 40.6% more sales in the first 11 months of this year than over the same period last year.

In regional NSW sales volumes are 26.9% higher than a year ago.

Days on site 

Sydney homes are typically selling in less than a month. Properties that sold in November were listed on realestate.com.au for a median 25 days, up from 29 days a year earlier.

In regional NSW the number of days on site was an historic low of 28 days, down from 47 days a year earlier.

Properties are selling fastest across Sydney’s northern beaches, eastern suburbs, north shore and Sutherland regions, with a median of 22 days. In regional NSW the Illawarra and Newcastle and Lake Macquarie regions recorded the fewest days on site at 23 days.

Enquiry per listing 

Property enquiries trended lower in November with an average of 27 enquiry per listing in Sydney, down from 37 in October, and the lowest since June.

In regional NSW, there was an average of 16 enquiries per listing, down from 19 in October and the lowest since July.

Properties in Sydney’s Central Coast recorded the highest enquiry per listing at 38, while the Hunter Valley, Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven led the regions with 26 enquiry per listing.

Victoria

Price growth has slowed over recent months across Victoria although prices are still rising rapidly. Over the past three months, Prices have risen by 3.4% in Melbourne and 6.2% in regional Victoria.

Compared to the same time last year, dwelling prices in Melbourne are 13.5% higher and in regional Victoria they are up 26.9%.

Sales volumes 

In Melbourne, preliminary monthly sales volumes pulled back in November, but remain 78.2% higher than a year ago.

In regional areas, sales volumes in November were the highest they’ve been since April. Year-to-date, sales volumes in regional Victoria are 25.3% higher compared to the same period last year.

The largest increases in cumulative sales was recorded in Melbourne’s inner east and west. In the regions, Ballarat and Geelong recorded the largest increases.

Days on site

In Melbourne, the median days on site for properties sold in November was 27 days and 33 days in regional Victoria. A year ago, days on site was 30 days and 51 days respectively.

Properties across Melbourne’s Mornington Peninsula recorded the city’s fewest days on site (24 days), while Geelong led the regions at 26 days.

Enquiry per listing 

The average enquiry per listing in Melbourne in November was 12, down from 23 the previous month and the lowest it has been since May.

Across regional Victoria there was on average 8 enquiries per listing in November, which was the lowest since June and down from 11 in October.

The most enquiries per listing were recorded in Melbourne’s south east (16), while Geelong led the regions (11).

Queensland

While other states have seen the rate of price growth slow over recent months there is little sign of a similar trend in Queensland. In Brisbane, dwelling prices have risen 6.9% higher over the past three months and 23.3% year-on-year.

In regional Queensland prices are 6.2% higher over the past quarter to be 24.1% higher year-on-year.

Sales volumes 

Both Brisbane and regional Queensland recorded their highest number of monthly preliminary sales in November of any month since the beginning of 2019.

Over the first 11 months of 2021 preliminary sales in Brisbane were 45.5% higher than the same period last year and in regional Queensland they were 48.3% higher.

The biggest growth in sales this year was recorded in Brisbane’s Ipswich, where sales volumes surged 79.1% on year. In the regions, Darling Downs-Maranoa (63.7%) and Cairns (63.2%) recorded the greatest increases.

Days on site 

In Brisbane, the median days on site for properties sold in November was 37 days compared to 53 days a year earlier.

In the regions, properties were listed on realestate.com.au for a median 51 days compared to 70 a year earlier.

Enquiry per listing 

The average number of enquiries per listing in Brisbane fell to 27 in November, down from 31 in October. Still, this remains well above the 12 enquiries per listing recorded the same time a year ago.

Regional listings had an average 11 enquiries per listing, up from 6 a year ago.

Monthly enquiries were highest in Brisbane’s west (35) and south Moreton Bay (34). Outside of Brisbane, monthly enquiry was highest in the Gold Coast (27) and Sunshine Coast (23).

South Australia

There has been a slight moderation of price growth across South Australia with prices 5.9% higher in Adelaide and 4.4% higher in the regions over the past three months.

Over the past year, Adelaide prices have increased by 20.9% and regional prices are 15.8% higher.

Sales volumes

In November, the number of preliminary monthly sales across both Adelaide and the regions were the highest of any month since the beginning of 2019.

Over the first 11 months of this year there has been 35.4% more sales in Adelaide compared to the same period last year and 38% more sales than a year ago in regional South Australia.

Adelaide’s Hills district recorded the greatest increase in sales so far this year, up 43.9% compared to last year. Outside of Adelaide, the outback (61.3%) and Barossa, Yorke and Mid North regions (58.3%) recorded the greatest sales uplift.

Days on site

In Adelaide, the median days on site for properties sold in November reached an historic low of 23 days, down from 36 days a year earlier.

In regional SA, there has been a significant reduction in days on site over the year, falling from 141 days to 68 days.

Enquiry per listing

The average number of enquiries per listing in Adelaide fell to 19 days in November, down from 22 days the previous month. However, this was much higher than the average of 13 a year earlier.

In regional areas, enquiries per listing were unchanged over the month at 5.

Western Australia

Prices across WA have continued to rise over the past three months, however growth is relatively lacklustre compared to most other regions of the country.

Over the past year, prices have increased by 9% in Perth and by 9.7% in the regions – the most moderate price growth across the country.

Sales volumes

In November, the number of preliminary monthly sales in Perth was the highest of any month since the beginning of 2019. Outside of Perth, sales volumes also rose over the month.

Over the first 11 months of this year, Perth has recorded 43.6% more preliminary sales than the same period a year ago and in regional WA sales are 49.1% higher.

Days on site

Properties are selling much faster than a year ago. In November, the median number of days on site for properties in Perth fell to 56 days, down from 66 days a year earlier.

In regional areas the number of days on site has fallen from 123 days to 89 days.

Enquiry per listing

In Perth, the average number of enquiries per listing eased slightly in November to 8.

In regional WA, the average enquiry per listing was unchanged in November at 3.

Tasmania

While price growth has marginally slowed in Tasmania it is still very strong. Hobart prices have risen 8.1% over the past three months, and 7.5% in the regions.

Year-on-year, Tasmania has seen some of the greatest price growth in the country. Hobart prices have surged 34.5% and regional areas have recorded annual growth of 32.2%.

Sales volumes 

In November, preliminary monthly sales in Hobart were the highest they’ve been since March.

Year-to-date, preliminary sales volumes are 14.6% higher than a year ago in Hobart and 17.6% higher in regional Tasmania.

Days on site

In Hobart, properties were listed for an average of just 20 days during November, down from 30 days a year ago.

In regional Tasmania, properties were on site for a median 35 days, down from 56 days a year ago.

Enquiry per listing 

Over recent months, enquiry per listing in Hobart has fallen from a peak of 20 to 16 in November, although still remains higher than a year ago.

In regional Tasmania, the number of enquiries per listing was 10 in November, up from 6 a year earlier.

Northern Territory

The rapid price growth in Darwin has started to slow with prices rising 6.9% over the past three months. In regional areas, prices have increased by 10.9% over the same period.

Over the past 12 months, Darwin prices are 41.7% higher while in the regions prices have increased by 25.4%.

Despite the strong price growth, prices across the territory have only just recently eclipsed their previous highs.

Sales volumes

In both Darwin and the regions the number of preliminary sales in November was lower than the previous month. There were also fewer sales than in November 2020.

Despite some recent weakening of sales volumes, comparing the first 11 months of this year to the same period last year shows sales in Darwin are 46.4% higher, while regional sales are 73.7% higher.

Days on site

The median days on site for properties sold in November rose sharply in Darwin to 70 days. This still remains lower than a year ago.

In regional NT, days on site in November was recorded at 135 days, up from 117 days a year earlier.

Enquiry per listing

In Darwin, enquiry per listing remained unchanged in November at 5. Regional enquiries per listing were also unchanged over the month at 2.

Australian Capital Territory

The rate of price growth in Canberra is slowing with prices rising by 7.4% over the past three months, however annual price growth has still been rapid, up 32%.

Sales volumes

In November, the number of preliminary monthly sales in Canberra was the highest it has been any month since the beginning of 2019.

Over the first 11 months of this year, there has been 21.7% more sales than over the same period last year.

Days on site

The median days on site for Canberra properties sold in November reached an historic low of 21 days.

Enquiry per listing

Over recent months the average number of enquiries per listing in Canberra has fallen from a peak of 20 to reach 13 in November.

Although there has been some weakening of enquiry, it has increased from an average of 7 a year ago.

Originally published as: PropTrack Property Market Outlook – December 2021.