PropTrack property market outlook: February 2022

Property prices are expected to climb further this year, however the pace of growth experienced in 2021 won’t be repeated.

The housing market has started off the year strongly with sales volumes in January slightly higher than they were last year, while property listings have continued to recover.

Property prices are tipped to rise further in 2022 according to PropTrack. Picture: Getty

Demand has held firm over the month. At the same time, we have witnessed seasonal increases in days on site however, they remain lower than they were a year ago.

Over 2022, we expect dwelling price growth of between 6% and 9% across the combined capital cities, though that pace won’t be universal.

Brisbane and Hobart have the strongest price growth forecasts among the capital cities thanks to their low supply of stock for sale, heightened demand and relatively lower prices compared to Sydney and Melbourne.

On the other hand, Perth, Sydney and Melbourne have the lowest price growth forecasts for the year.

Read the full PropTrack Market Outlook 2022 for further price forecasts and analysis.

In the first month of 2022 property prices continued to rise however, the rate of price growth has slowed, particularly in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth.

In the coming months we expect new listings to remain elevated. Vendors continue to make-up for the lost opportunity to list during last year’s lockdowns and the looming interest rate hikes either later this year or early next are likely to also create some urgency for buyers and sellers.

Let’s look at current housing market conditions throughout the country.

• New South Wales
• Victoria
• Queensland
• South Australia
• Western Australia
• Tasmania
• Northern Territory
• Australian Capital Territory

New South Wales

Sydney property prices have increased by 19.9% over the year to January 2021 with the rates of annual growth having slowed over each of the past three months.

In regional NSW prices are 30.9% higher over the past year which represents a moderate slowing of growth from the previous month.

Sales volumes

Sales volumes in Sydney and regional NSW during January were slightly lower than they were a year earlier, however they were much higher than in January 2020.

In Sydney, Ryde and the Inner West recorded the largest year-on-year increases in sales. Outside of the capital city, Riverina and New England and North West recorded the largest increase in sales.

Demand per listing

In the capital, the number of highly engages buyers per listing picked up in January, hitting the highest level since September 2021. However, it still remained 1.8% lower than a year ago. Regional demand per listing remained 38.9% higher year on year.

A highly engaged buyers is someone who is likely close to making a purchase, based on their activity on realestate.com.au.

Properties in Sydney’s Northern Beaches and Sutherland were most sought after, while the Illawarra, Blue Mountains and outer south west were the most in demand regional locations.

Days on site

The median number of days a Sydney property was listed on realestate.com.au before selling was 51 days in January, down from 55 days a year earlier. In regional NSW, properties were listed for a median 49 days.

Properties in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, western suburbs and the Blue Mountains sold the fastest during the month. In the regions, the Hunter Valley (excl. Newcastle) had the lowest days on site.

Victoria

Over the 12 month to January 2022, Melbourne property prices increased by 11.2%, while regional  prices jumped 24.5%.

The annual rate of growth in each region has been slowing since September 2021.

Sales volumes

Preliminary monthly sales volumes for January were marginally lower than a year ago in Melbourne (-3.1%) while they were much lower in regional Vic (-18.6%).

Despite the easing of sales, they remained much higher this year than they were in 2019 or 2020.

Melbourne’s inner city and inner east suburbs recorded the largest year-on-year increase in sales while in regional Victoria, only the North West and Shepparton recorded an annual rise.

Demand per listing

In Melbourne, demand per listing increased for the second consecutive month but remained lower than its peak and only 3.1% higher year-on-year. In regional Victoria demand per listing was also lower than its peak however, it was still 23.2% higher year-on-year.

Across the capital, the Mornington Peninsula and Outer East had the highest demand per listing. In regional Victoria, Geelong and Hume had the highest demand per listing.

Days on site

The median days on site for Melbourne properties sold in January was unchanged compared to a year earlier at 51 days while regional properties were typically selling after 50 days compared to 59 days a year earlier.

In Melbourne, properties were selling fastest in Mornington Peninsula and Outer East, while in regional Victoria they sold the quickest in Bendigo and Geelong.

Queensland

Brisbane property prices surged 26.7% over the year to January 2022 with a marginal slowing of annual growth over the past month.

Annual price growth in regional Queensland has also slowed marginally over the past month however, prices were 24% higher year-on-year.

Sales volumes 

Statewide sales volumes were higher compared to a year ago. In Brisbane, sales volumes were 2.9% higher year-on-year while in regional Queensland, sales volumes were 6.7% higher.

Ipswich and Logan-Beaudesert recorded the greatest year-on-year increase in sales within Brisbane and in regional Qld Outback and Central Queensland recorded the greatest increases relative to last year.

Demand per listing 

Demand per listings in Brisbane and regional Queensland reached historic highs in January, having increased by 43% and 52% respectively year-on-year.

The Brisbane properties most in demand were located in western and northern suburbs. In regional Queensland, the Sunshine Coast had the highest demand per listing.

Days on site 

Properties are selling faster than a year ago. In Brisbane, the median days a property was listed on site hit 50 days in January, down from 64 days a year earlier. In the regions, properties were on site for 60 days, down from 72 a year earlier.

Ipswich and Logan-Beaudesert had the lowest days on site in Brisbane while in regional Queensland the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast recorded the shortest days on site.

South Australia

Over the past year property prices in Adelaide have increased by 23.9%, and 18% in regional areas.

Each of these regions recorded a minor slowing of annual price growth in January.

Sales volumes 

Preliminary monthly sales volumes were marginally higher than a year ago, up 2.5% in Adelaide and 0.9% in the regions.

Adelaide’s central and hills regions recorded the largest lift in sales. South Australia’s outback region was the only non-capital city area to see higher year on year sales, with a 55.7% surge.

Demand per listing

The average demand per listing reached new historic highs in January.

Adelaide’s south, central and Hills suburbs recorded the highest demand per listing. In the regions, Barossa, Yorke and Mid North areas as well as the South East recorded the largest year-on-year increase in demand.

Days on site 

Properties continue to sell faster than a year ago in both the capital city and regions.

In Adelaide, days on site fell from 55 days in January 2021 to 47 days in January 2022, while in regional areas properties sold in a median 67 days, down from 121 days a year earlier.

Western Australia

Property prices in Perth rose 8.7% over the 12 months to January 2022, the slowest annual rate of growth since November 2020.

In regional WA, prices have increased by 14.5% over the past year with the rate of growth having consistently slowed since April 2021.

Sales volumes

There was a significant annual increase in preliminary monthly sales in January 2022 across Western Australia.

In Perth, sales volumes were 18.4% higher year-on-year and in regional WA they were 15.5% higher.

South west and inner Perth suburbs recorded the greatest increases in sales over the year in the capital, and in regional WA Outback (South) and Outback (North) registered the greatest increases.

Demand per listing

Although demand per listing is typically much lower in Western Australia, it reached historic highs in January.

In the capital, inner and north east suburbs recorded the highest demand per listing. In regional WA, Bunbury and the Wheat Belt had the highest average demand per listing and have also recorded the largest year-on-year increases.

Days on site

Both Perth and regional WA recorded a fall in median days on site over the past year.

In the capital, Mandurah and south west suburbs recorded the shortest days on site in January, while in regional WA, Bunbury and Outback (North) have the shortest days on site.

Tasmania

Over recent months there has been a moderate slowing of annual price growth in Hobart, however prices are still up 28.4% annually as at January 2022.

Price growth remains strong in regional Tasmania, up 31.6% year-on-year, with the rate of growth slowing marginally over the month.

Sales volumes

Sales volumes in Hobart were 17.4% lower in January than the previous year, with more sales in regional areas than in the capital city.

Tasmania’s west and north west regions were the only non-Hobart SA4 areas in which sales volumes were lower year-on-year.

Demand per listing

Demand per listing has fallen from its peak, however still remains higher than a year ago.

In regional Tasmania, the South East and Launceston regions had the most demand per listing.

Days on site

In Hobart, the median number of days on site for properties rose to 40 days in January.

In the regions, properties are selling in a median 50 days.

Northern Territory

Price growth in Darwin is slowing. In January, property prices were 16.2% higher than a year ago, the slowest rate of growth in 12 months. The rate of growth in the regions has also slowed over recent months.

Sales volumes

In both Darwin and regional NT the number of preliminary sales in January 2022 was lower than the previous January.

In Darwin, sales volumes were 13.8% lower year-on-year while in regional NT sales volumes are 14.6% lower.

Demand per listing

In Darwin, average demand per listing fell by 4% year-on-year in January, while in regional NT it has increased by 24.7%.

Days on site

Darwin and regional NT both recorded increases in median days on site over the year to January 2022. In Darwin, days on site is now 74 days, while in regional NT properties are listed for a median 130 days.

ACT

Canberra property prices have risen by 32.5% over the 12 months to January 2022 with only a marginal slowing of price growth over the past month.

Sales volumes

In January 2022, the number of preliminary monthly sales in Canberra was 7.3% higher than they were over the same period last year.

Demand per listing

Over recent months the average demand per listing in Canberra has increased and in January it was slightly below its historic high. Year-on-year, demand per listing across Canberra has increased by 32.3%.

Days on site

The median days on site for Canberra properties sold in January 2022 has decreased from 49 days a year earlier to 43 days.

Originally published as: PropTrack Property Market Outlook – February 2021.