PropTrack property market outlook: November 2021

The housing market has been given a much-needed listings boost in October as lockdowns ended.

Potential buyers have finally seen the uplift in new listings that they have been crying-out for after a record number of properties came onto the market across Australia’s capital cities in October, and hit a three-year high nationally.

Nonetheless, buyers will continue to face tough competition with demand for properties based on the number of views per listing on realestate.com.au reaching historic highs in October 2021.

Properties are selling quicker that they were a year ago while the amount of stock available for sale has reduced dramatically. Nationally, the number of total listings remains 19.3% weaker than October 2020.

Price have increased by more than 20% over the past 12 months, while sales volumes and the number of views per listings are also significantly higher.

While prices have continued to rise, the rate of growth has slowed from its peak earlier this year, a trend we expect to continue.

The strong uplift in prices has been driven by record-low mortgage rates and people dedicating more of their income to housing a trend we believe is coming to the end of running its course.

The next few months will be interesting to watch. Assuming we continue to see high levels of new stock coming to the market there should be a better balance between demand and supply.  

Furthermore, with lockdowns ending and social amenities reopening, along with domestic and international travel, we are likely to see people spending more of their income on these types of pursuits which may lead to less being spent on residential housing and further slowing of price growth.

How property is fairing across the country

Let’s look at housing market conditions throughout the states and territories. 

• New South Wales
• Victoria
• Queensland
• South Australia
• Western Australia
• Tasmania
• Northern Territory
• Australian Capital Territory

New South Wales

Over the past year, dwelling prices in Sydney have increased by 26.6% while in regional NSW prices have increased at a faster pace, up 33.5%.  House prices in both Sydney and regional NSW have risen at a much faster rate over the year than unit prices.

Sales volumes

During the first 10 months of 2021, preliminary monthly sales volumes show there were 43.1% more sales in Sydney than over the same period last year, and 29.8% more sales in regional NSW. Sydney’s inner west and outer south west suburbs recorded the biggest increase in sales, while in the regions, New England and North West, and Far West and Orana recorded the largest increases. 

Days on site

The median number of days on site for properties sold in October remained at an historic low of 24 days in Sydney and reached a new historic low of 31 days in regional NSW. Sydney’s Northern Beaches (17 days) and Eastern Suburbs (19 days) recorded the shortest days on site, while in regional NSW properties sold the fastest in the Illawarra (22 days) and Newcastle and Lake Macquarie (24 days). 

Views per listing

Average views per listing in Sydney fell by 2.7% in October as new listing volumes rose, while in regional NSW views per listing hit fresh historic highs. Sydney’s far west and Blue Mountains region recorded the largest increase in views per listing over the year in the capital, while in regional NSW the Capital region along with New England and North West recorded the largest increases. 

Victoria

Despite lengthy lockdowns, Melbourne property prices have increased by 13.3% over the past year, while in regional areas prices are 24.4% higher. House prices in Melbourne have increased at more than double the rate of units over the past year while in regional Victoria, price growth for houses has been around 5% higher than growth for units. 

Sales volumes

So far this year, preliminary monthly sales volumes in Melbourne are 55.4% higher than they were over the same period last year, while in regional Victoria sales volumes have grown by 38.5%. The west and south east of Melbourne have seen the biggest year-on-year increases in sales throughout the city while in regional Victoria, Ballarat and Latrobe-Gippsland recorded the largest increases. 

Days on site

The median days on site hit an historic low in both Melbourne (26 days) and regional Victoria (31 days). In Melbourne, the shortest days on site were recorded in the Mornington Peninsula (21 days) and outer eastern suburbs (23 days), while in regional Victoria the shortest days on site were in Geelong (25 days) and Bendigo (27 days). 

Views per listing 

Despite a surge in new listings, views per listing reached new historic highs in both Melbourne and regional Victoria in October. Western and north west Melbourne suburbs have recorded largest year-on-year increases in views per listing while in regional Victoria, views were highest in Geelong and the Warrnambool and South West regions. 

Queensland

Over the 12 months to October, prices in Brisbane have risen by 19.1% compared to a 21.8% rise in regional Queensland. House prices in Brisbane have increased at three times the annual rate of units, while in regional Queensland house prices have risen only slightly faster than units. 

Sales volumes

Over the first 10 months of this year, preliminary monthly sales volumes in Brisbane are 46% higher than they were over the same period last year and in regional Queensland they are 51.6% higher. Ipswich and the inner city have recorded the largest increases in cumulative annual sales in Brisbane while Queensland’s Darling Downs and Maranoa region and Cairns recorded the largest sales uplift in regional areas. 

Days on site 

The median days on site in Brisbane increased from 35 to 38 days in October while regional Queensland remained unchanged at 53 days. In Brisbane, northern (30 days) and southern (31 days) suburbs had the shortest median days on site while in regional Queensland, the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast had the shortest days on site, at 37 days. 

Views per listing

Both Brisbane and regional Queensland recorded a record number of views per listing in October. In Brisbane, the largest year-on-year increases in views per listing were achieved in Ipswich, Logan and Beaudesert while in regional Queensland, the Darling Downs and Maranoa region and Wide Bay recorded the largest increases. 

South Australia

Property prices have risen 18.3% in Adelaide over the past year, and by 13.8% in regional parts of the state. Unit prices have barely increased over the year in Adelaide with most of the growth coming from house prices. 

Sales volumes

So far this year, preliminary monthly sales volumes in Adelaide are 33.8% higher than over the same period last year, and 38.1% higher in regional areas. Adelaide’s central suburbs and hills region recorded the largest uplift in sales while in regional SA sales have risen by more than 50% in the Barossa, Yorke, Mid North and Outback regions.

Days on site

The median days on site for properties sold in October reached an historic low of 25 days in Adelaide, and a new historic low of 61 days in regional areas. Properties in western Adelaide suburbs recorded the shortest days on site (22 days), while in the regions, properties in the south east were on site for the shortest at a median 49 days. 

Views per listing 

Views per listing reached a new record high in both Adelaide and regional South Australia. In the capital, western and central suburbs recorded the large year-on-year increases, as well as the hills region. Across the rest of the state, views per listing more than doubled in the south east region.

Western Australia

Perth and regional WA has experienced a rapid deceleration in price growth over recent months however, prices are still 8% and 9.3% higher respectively over the past year. Unit price growth has outpaced that of houses in Perth while in regional WA house price growth has slightly outpaced that of units. 

Sales volumes

Preliminary monthly sales volumes in Perth for the first 10 months of this year are 47.5% higher than last year and in regional WA they are 54.6% higher. Perth’s south west and south east regions have recorded the largest year-on-year increases in sales while in regional WA, the southern Outback region and Wheat Belt recorded the greatest lift in sales. 

Days on site

Days on site reached a record low of 59 days in Perth during October, while regional WA also hit an historic low of 94 days. In Perth, properties are spending the fewest days on site in Mandurah (50 days) while in regional WA days on site is lowest in the northern Outback region, at 90 days.

Views per listing

The number of views per listing in Perth in October was 11.5% higher than a year earlier, while in regional WA views per listing reached an historic high. Perth’s Mandurah and north west recorded the largest increases in views per listing over the past year, while Bunbury and the Wheat Belt recorded the greatest increases outside of Perth. 

Tasmania

The rapid price growth across Tasmania remains strong, even after annual growth of 32.5% in Hobart and 31.7% in regional Tasmania. Price growth for houses has outpaced units across all regions, however unit prices are still up more than 25% over the past year across Hobart and regional Tasmania. 

Sales volumes

So far this year, sales are 15.3% higher than last year in Hobart and 20.4% higher than last year in regional Tasmania.

Days on site

The median days on site for Hobart increased to 25 days in October, up from September’s historic low of 19 days. Across the rest of Tasmania, properties were on site for a median 38 days – the lowest on record. 

Views per listing

The number of views per listing in Hobart fell by 8.9% in October however, they have increased by 41.7% year-on-year. In regional Tasmania, views per listing rose by 4.2% last month to be 76.4% higher year-on-year. 

Northern Territory

Over the past few months, price growth in Darwin and the regions has slowed however, Darwin prices have still increased by 37.6% over the past year. Prices in regional areas have risen by 8.3% in the 12 months to October. 

Sales volumes

Sales volumes are much higher than a year ago with preliminary monthly sales over the first 10 months of this year 56.1% higher than the same period last year in Darwin and 91.3% higher than a year ago in the regions.

Days on site

The median days on site for properties sold in October was 58 days in Darwin and 110 days in regional NT, down from 63 days and 114 days respectively a year ago.

Views per listing 

Over the month there was a 1.7% decline in views per listing in Darwin however, they remained 9.5% higher year-on-year. In regional NT, views per listing fell by 9.7% over the month, remaining 4.4% higher year-on-year. 

ACT

Property prices in Canberra are continuing to climb and have increased by 29.6% over the past year, driven by a 36.2% rise in house prices. Unit prices have risen 14.7% over the year. 

Sales volumes

Year-to-date, the number of preliminary monthly sales has increased by 22.1% compared to the same period last year.

Days on site

The median days on site for properties sold across the territory during October reached an historic low of 21 days, down from 25 days a year ago. 

Views per listing

The number of views per listing across the ACT reached a new historic high in October, to be 43.3% higher year-on-year. 

Originally published as: PropTrack Property Market Outlook – November 2021.